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At its simplest, expected value in sports betting is a way to measure the probability gap between a bettor's expectations - and the sportsbook's.
Why is Expected Value Important for Sports Bettors?
38% implied probability) instead of +100.
This would look like:
52(%)
Some bettors trust their own algorithms, others keep an eye on injury news, and some have acquired at least a semi-reliable feel for the market and know, more often than not, when it's time to "buy low," allowing them to beat the closing line.
This contrarianism extends to not just teams, but sports and leagues themselves.
The sportsbook has every conceivable advantage, which is compounded further by the vig.
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